Airport Alert: Democrats Flip Senate and House, Ushering in Divided Government in 2027
November 4, 2026
Washington will enter into a period of divided government in 2027, following yesterday’s midterm elections, which saw Democrats outperform expectations across the country and secure enough seats to flip both the Senate and House. A brief summary of the results so far follows. As a reminder, the AAAE team will provide a deeper dive on the election results and what they mean for key committees and the airport agenda in the lame duck and the 120th Congress next Monday, November 9, following our regularly scheduled weekly Federal Affairs call (call-in details below).
United States Senate
Republicans had slim majorities in both chambers going into the midterm elections. The GOP’s 53 to 47 majority in the Senate meant that Democrats needed to flip four Republican-held seats to take back control of the upper chamber. Democrats far exceeded that threshold by running the table and flipping at least seven Republican seats with two Senate races still to be decided.
As of now, Democrats will have a 54 to 44 advantage over Republicans. And that gap could widen to 56 to 44 depending on the outcomes of close elections in Alaska and Mississippi. Those victories will give Democrats a small cushion to operate in the next Congress, but they will not have enough members to break the 60 votes necessary to pass controversial legislation.
The election results will have a big impact on key Senate Committees that we follow. Most notably, Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-ME) lost her reelection bid, ending a nearly 30-year career and creating an opening in the top Republican slot on that powerful committee. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) is next in line to become the top Republican on the committee.
Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) will move from Ranking Democrat to Chair of the Appropriations Committee. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) is expected to transition from Ranking Member to Chair of the subcommittee responsible for DOT and FAA funding. The lead Republican slot on the DOT/FAA funding subcommittee is an open question since the outcome of the race involving Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS), the current Chair, has yet to be decided with Hyde-Smith trailing by a handful of votes.
On DHS appropriations, Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) is expected to transition from Ranking Democrat to Chair, although he is recovering from a recent stroke. Senator Katie Britt (R-AL) could transition from DHS Subcommittee Chair to Ranking Member but with a large number of new Senators expected to be named to the Senate Appropriations Committee due to retirements and election losses, she may choose to move to another less controversial subcommittee.
Another lawmaker from Washington, Senator Maria Cantwell (D-WA), is expected to play an even greater role in crafting the next FAA reauthorization bill and potential TSA reauthorization legislation. She is slated to become the next Chair of the Commerce Committee, switching spots with current Chair Ted Cruz (R-TX). Look for the two Washington Senators to press for more infrastructure investment while focusing on aviation safety, air traffic control modernization, and Democratic priorities.
On the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee, we will see a new Chair with the retirement of the current top Democrat – Senator Gary Peters (D-MI). Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) currently serves as top committee Republican, and it is unclear at this point if he will want to retain that role in the next Congress.
House of Representatives
As was widely expected, the House will shift to a Democratic majority for the 120th Congress. As of this morning, Democrats have won 228 seats to the Republicans’ 139, with more than 65 races yet to be called (218 seats are required for a majority). Democratic candidates lead in many of the undecided races, so the party is expected to expand its majority as results are finalized. More than 60 incumbents in the current Congress are retiring, running for another office, or lost in a primary, and a growing number of seats have flipped from Republican to Democratic control. As a result, the freshman class of the 120th Congress will be one of the largest in many years.
Democrats are expected to re-elect their party leadership for the new Congress when lawmakers return next week. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Katherine Clark (D-MA) and Pete Aguilar (D-CA) are expected to serve as Speaker, Majority Leader and Majority Whip, respectively, though the official vote for Speaker will not take place until the new Congress is sworn in on January 3. Current House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has already announced that he will not seek a leadership role in the next Congress, so House Republicans will elect a new minority leader. Likely candidates include current Majority Leader Steve Scalice (R-LA), Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN), and House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-OH).
The change in majority means Democrats will take the chairmanships of House committees. Current Ranking Member Rick Larsen (D-WA) is expected to become chairman of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. Given the retirement of current Chair Sam Graves (R-MO), Rep. David Rouser (R-NC) is expected to assume the top Republican position, but his re-election race is closer than expected and has not yet been called, though he leads. Subcommittee chairs will not be known until the committees formally organize in January, but current Aviation Subcommittee Ranking Member Andre Carson (D-IN) is likely to become chair. Given the retirement of current subcommittee Chair Troy Nehls (R-TX), the Republican lead on the subcommittee is up for grabs.
On the House Appropriations Committee, current Chairman Tom Cole (R-OK) and Ranking Member Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) are expected to keep their leadership positions but swap roles. Similarly, current THUD Subcommittee Chair Steve Womack (R-AR) and Ranking Member Jim Clyburn (D-SC) are expected to remain atop the panel that determines DOT and FAA funding, also swapping roles. On the DHS Subcommittee, Henry Cuellar (D-TX) is expected to become Chair; however, it is unclear who will become the ranking member with the retirement of Mark Amodei (R-NV).
Noteworthy races include seven Republican members of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee who lost re-election, among them Scott Perry (R-PA) and Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ). Van Drew had indicated interest in the top Republican spot on the Aviation Subcommittee. The Appropriations Committee has nine confirmed departures due to retirements, losses and other races, including the retirement of Rep. Amodei atop the DHS funding subcommittee.
AAAE Midterm Election Analysis to Follow Weekly Federal Affairs Call on Monday, November 9
On Monday, November 9, the AAAE team will provide a deeper dive on the election results and what they mean for the upcoming lame duck session and the 120th Congress following our regularly scheduled Federal Affairs update call. Make plans to join us from 12 pm to 1 pm Eastern. Call-in details follow.
Login Instructions:
Monday, November 9 | 12:00 p.m. Eastern to 1:00 p.m. Eastern / 9:00 a.m. to 10 a.m. Pacific
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